| | It feels odd to think that its already been seven years since 9/11. Even crazier to think about how much has happened over those seven years.
I find it funny that people actually thought that bringing the European supercollider online would somehow bring about the end of the Earth. Outside of generating a few painful pickup lines, no harm seems to have been inflicted upon me, humanity as a whole, or the Earth. I will sleep better tonight.
The alleged illness of Kim Jong Il has again brought up the discussion on the future of the North Korean state. Amidst the hopes for a gruesome death of Dear Leader and collapse of the North Korean state, Professor Andrei Lankov made an interesting point that despite all the cries of "tongil" and the talk of reunification, the players in the region have little interest in both the elimination of North Korea and the reunification of Korea. I'm not going to make a rather irrational nationalist case about how people object to reunification out of fear of a powerful, unified Korean state, but when one thinks about his theory, it really does make sense.
First off, its within the means of the international community to destroy North Korea. Despite their policy of Juche, North Korea is truly dependent upon international donor nations for their survival. All it would really take to bring down the North is to simply stop providing them with aid. It wouldn't even require the Chinese, if it were simply South Korea, Lankov thinks it would be enough to bring the North to its end. Yet its obvious that its not happened yet. Why?
Any collapse would lead to a mass exodus of North Korean refugees into China, Russia, and South Korea. The former two have little interest in taking in the small numbers of North Korean refugees that trickle in at this point; I doubt they'd be interested in taking a couple million. Nor does China have any interest in a democratic, relatively pro-American Republic of Korea right along its borders. There are interesting rumors in China policy circles that if North Korea were to be on the verge of collapse, the PLA may move in and try to establish a friendly puppet government to maintain a buffer.
South Korea also has little interest in taking refugees, let alone taking over a bankrupt and backwards North Korea. North Korea would be a giant weight hung around the South Korean economy's neck and would drown both nations. If one looks at South Korean policy towards the North, all of it is designed around propping up the Northern state; the apparent goal is to outlast the current leadership and help guide the next generation of North Korean leaders into building up the North Korean economy. Its a completely rational plan but can easily be viewed as a callous one given its complete disregard for North Korean human rights. I suppose in the South Korean ethical calculus, it is better to leave them in immediate suffering in hopes of engineering a gradual and gentle end to North Korea than to bring about the North's quick end and create a spectacular and sudden crisis that could easily burn the entire peninsula. Some would criticize it as being harsh, but given that the other scenario could easily lead to war, one can't blame them for pursing such a path.
Then there are the Americans, who despite their loathing of the short dictator of the North, aren't in the mood for dealing with the complete demise of the North Korean state. Sure, the Bush administration loves to poke the North and harass them about ongoing nuclear issues, but I don't think the United States truly has the stomach to deal with the consequenses of rapidly bringing down the North Korean regime; most of those scenarios end with Seoul burning to the ground or mushroom clouds over Tokyo. This is why I can't ever imagine any sort of American attack on North Korea, despite the fear and paranoia by others that such an attack is somehow imminent.
Above all, I think that all the players are a little scared of what a post-North Korean future will look like. The DPRK's removal from the scene will force the nations of the region to openly deal with and focus on the many simmering issues in the region: the future role of the United States, Chinese hegemony, ROK identity, and the future of Japan.
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| | Posted 9/11/2008 12:47 AM - 41 Views - 2 eProps - 1 Comment
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